A tempest in Wisconsin: hopes, misgivings, and musings about Tuesday

One thing that has struck me about Tuesday’s primary election for Wisconsin's governorship is how comparatively... quiet it has been.

Comparatively is a relative term. There has been much consternation lately in Wisconsin political circles - I have expressed some of it, myself - over tomorrow’s Democratic primary for governor. In the main, one candidate has stood above the rest in terms of campaign capacity and the ability to get her message out to the masses: current member of the State Assembly and democratic socialist Francesca Hong.

On the Republican side, MAGA congressman Tom Tiffany, who represents Wisconsin's 7th House district, looks assured to capture the Republican nomination. I will talk more about him in a later article, since Tiffany's folksy, "aw shucks" veneer conceals a truly menacing political figure. Among other things, he is a committed backer of 2020 election conspiracies, one of Trump's most essential demands for those who profess loyalty to him. These conspiracies that Tiffany has supported were the entire reason for the January 6th attack on the US Capitol.

But for now, let's focus on the pro-democracy side of the coin here.

A little background for those unaware: current Democratic governor of Wisconsin Tony Evers announced his retirement last summer. Tony Evers has proven to be a surprisingly durable political figure to his opponents. I distinctly remember back in 2022 how so many people wrote him off as likely to lose to Tim Michels, the multimillionaire owner of a major construction company. This included the respected election analysts of Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.

I was more skeptical. I knocked around 400 doors in my community during that election season to ensure that Evers was not defeated, and that Wisconsin was not dragged back to the bitter days of "divide and conquer" promoted by former Governor Scott Walker. Considering that I had a day job, this was an at-times exhausting effort. But I was deeply alarmed by the prospect of a Tim Michels governorship.

One thing that I distinctly remember in the closing days of that election is Tim Michels confidently proclaiming that, "Republicans will never lose another election in Wisconsin after I am elected governor." Considering the Wisconsin Republicans' history of map-rigging in their favor - until very recently, Wisconsin had some of the most rigged state legislative maps in America - this was correctly understood as a threat to further assault democracy in the state.

Thankfully, the efforts of 1000s of people paid off. Tony Evers ended up winning fairly comfortably by the standards of Wisconsin's paper-thin victory margins: he got just shy over 51% of the vote, and his raw vote margin of victory was around 90,000 votes, over 4 times more than Joe Biden's Wisconsin victory back in 2020. He would be Two Term Tony.

But the Republicans, thanks to their rigged maps, would still be in control of both chambers of the legislature in Madison. In fact, despite their defeat at the top of the ticket in 2022, Republicans came within a few 100 votes of a veto-proof two thirds supermajority in Madison, which would have enabled them to override Governor Evers' vetoes of their bills aimed at restricting voting and abortion rights, targeting trans kids, and making it easier for corporations to pollute Wisconsin's air and water. That's how grotesquely our maps were rigged until 2023, when the Wisconsin State Supreme Court overturned them and demanded new maps be adopted.

Now, his time as governor is coming to a close. And the likely Democratic nominee who will try to succeed him is something of a wildcard.

I've known about Francesca Hong for a while: she's been a progressive firebrand in the state assembly and represents one of the most liberal districts in the entire state. She is the former owner of a ramen restaurant in Madison and has an extensive background in food service. She is quite young by the standards of candidates for political office: she is just 37 and is a single mom. Her parents are immigrants from South Korea.

In short, her background is nothing like the typical background of many elected officials, many of whom come from comfortable jobs in the realms of law and business. No Ivy League pedigree for her: she briefly attended UW-Madison before dropping out.

She's run a campaign focused on a few things: tackling affordability, particularly for things such as childcare, strengthening labor unions by repealing Wisconsin's anti-union law known as Act 10, and - most interesting of her platform, in my opinion - an AI data center moratorium.

What has struck me about Hong is that compared to basically every other candidate in the Democratic primary, she has been able to capture sustained attention for her campaign for governor. That is no small feat in an era where our information environment is atomized by highly customized algorithms. Most of my friends are supporting her, and it's not too surprising why: in addition to promoting progressive policies such as expanding childcare, she's also taken a very confrontational stance toward the Republicans. For their 2020 election denialism, Hong has referred to both Donald Trump and Tom Tiffany as traitors.

In short, Hong has a fire in her belly. She is striking a note of defiant optimism in a time when the pro-democracy side of this country can often feel bogged down in the morass of despair and uncertainty. And her background signals to people that she knows what it's like to struggle to pay bills and to work long hours at a physically demanding job where you are on your feet all day. I absolutely understand her appeal, and I see some of my own life reflected in hers as someone who has spent much of his working life in service jobs that don't pay very much.

Hong has also run an impressive campaign operation in terms of voter outreach: there's no doubt that her people have knocked the most doors out of any other candidate for governor this cycle, and not just in big cities, either: I've seen Hong campaign events in places like Viroqua, Wisconsin Rapids, Marshfield, and Menomonie. Not one of these places has a population greater than about 20,000 people. I've said for months now that she's running a real campaign, and that remains true.

Yet I retain some skepticism.

I will of course vote and volunteer for Francesca Hong should she be the nominee. I will work very hard on her behalf, so her more hardcore fans can spare me the accusations of being some sort of evil liberal saboteur. But I think her past statements stand in stark contrast to the very disciplined campaign she has run for governor. While people have focused on things like her past posts saying she didn't like Thanksgiving or Christmas, far more concerning to me are her past statements on police funding and policing generally.

A post from October 2021 is instructive, where she said, “police exist to uphold white supremacy. Defund then abolish. Reform can’t be an option.” In short: get rid of the cops.

Tom Tiffany has already attacked her at length for this, and you can expect that those attacks to be amplified a hundredfold by the mountains of oligarch money that will be backing his campaign for governor. I expect this will be at least an effective attack, though whether it helps Tiffany flip control of the governorship remains an open question.

People have often compared Hong to Zohran Mamdani in New York City. I wrote some about Mamdani back in November of last year. But one notable thing Mamdani did that showed he was serious about winning was not only did he walk back his previous stance on wanting to cut police funding, but he also actively courted law enforcement endorsements in his campaign for mayor. There's little doubt for me that this helped prevent Andrew Cuomo from becoming New York City's mayor.

Hong has since walked back her stance on defunding and abolishing the cops, saying that she would not sign a state budget that cuts police funding, but I think this is going to remain a consistent problem for her campaign if she wins the primary. Her past intemperate and sometimes outright stupid remarks are going to be used by the Republicans to fight the narrative war on turf favorable to them.

The thing about the Republicans is that they are very, very bad at offering people anything positive or hopeful to vote for. That is not how their party works in 2026. But what they lack in any sort of positive agenda, they make up for it by trafficking in resentment and fear. While we should be ready to meet them head on, it's important to not underestimate their ability to paint - and smear - candidates on these kinds of terms, especially when a candidate has so willingly given them ammunition to use.

The Republicans have spent millions boosting Hong’s candidacy, which suggests to me they have private data showing that she is the most beatable of the Democratic contenders left in the race. While Hong may be able to still win a general election, the idea that she is the “most electable” has no actual proof in the public data, where she consistently does worse than other Democrats, and seems to not have much proof in the private data either.  

Regardless, Francesca Hong believes in democracy, believes in a government that should provide for its people and not merely the grotesquely rich, and I think that she has a good, caring heart. My concerns about her are rooted in the fact that I think she will make a Tom Tiffany victory more likely, as well as making it more likely Republicans can retain control of the state assembly. It’s worth remembering that the last time the pro-democracy party in Wisconsin had full control of the government was back in 2010 – that was before I could even legally vote, as I was a junior in high school.

Hong is keenly aware that her most ambition plans will require full Democratic control of the state legislature in Madison. That AI data center moratorium she talks so much about is going to need legislative approval. So, it’s simply not enough to beat Tiffany: she would need to lead the Democrats to full control of the state government to be considered a success, especially given that we are in a political atmosphere where the anger at Donald Trump is palpable.

Ultimately, I think she will struggle to secure the generational opportunity that we have in Wisconsin to make this state a much better, safer, and more welcoming place to live. It’s possible that anti-Trump rage is enough to carry her over the line, but it’s not a risk I am comfortable taking. Too much is at stake.

I’ve talked a lot about Hong, since I think she will probably win the primary election, but I want to talk about who I am supporting as well. I will be voting for David Crowley tomorrow. While I admit this primary has been a rollercoaster with two campaigns that I had previously supported imploding unexpectedly, I am happy with my vote for Crowley.

When I listen to Crowley talk and learn of his record, the genuine impression I get is of a servant leader. As the leader of Milwaukee County’s government – a government that encompasses not only Milwaukee, but the many suburbs around it like Wauwatosa, South Milwaukee, West Allis, Brown Deer, Whitefish Bay, and so on – he has successfully led efforts to provide more housing and support for those experiencing homelessness, reduce the county’s opioid overdose rate, and prevent ICE from cooperating with local law enforcement. Some people dismiss these accomplishments; I and many others do not.

Rhetoric is nice. I am not opposed to soaring, defiant rhetoric toward the fascist cruelty that we are experiencing. How we talk about this hour of peril matters. But you ultimately must be able to win and to govern, and David Crowley has shown that he has real experience in the mechanics of government.

He’s also hardly a moderate: he has fully endorsed repealing Act 10, our regressive anti-labor law, expanding Medicaid to include a public option that others can buy into, and has made clear that he will prioritize fixing how our state government funds public education, reducing the overreliance that Wisconsin’s municipalities have had on property taxes just to keep the lights on in their local schools. He has experience doing this: he helped get Milwaukee, long demonized and starved of resources by the Wisconsin Republican Party, more money from the state.

I also find Crowley’s personal biography to be deeply moving. He comes from one of the poorest zip codes in the state on Milwaukee’s overwhelmingly Black north side. Both his parents struggled with drug addiction, and the family lost their home when he was 10. This is a guy who knows what it’s like to truly struggle.

While he might be a bit unpolished on the stump still, he has also dropped some bars. When he was asked by a voter about what he would do to protect Wisconsin from ICE, Crowley noted wryly, that when it comes to the LGBTQ and immigrant communities, “I like to say that I’m not an ally, I’m an accomplice.” He has also emphasized that he has fought to make sure Milwaukee County’s many police departments do not cooperate with ICE.

Crowley may not be perfect, but I think he has far fewer liabilities than Hong does, and I genuinely think he can use his experience in Milwaukee’s local government to help do great things for everyone in Wisconsin, regardless of your zip code. It’s also a boon to me that he does not have millions in Republican money boosting his candidacy. This would suggest to me that they’re far more afraid of facing him than they are Hong.

Regardless of who ultimately prevails tomorrow, they will inherit an immense responsibility: ensuring that Wisconsin does not fall under the further control of a political party that has gleefully enabled Trumpist fascism at every turn. To paraphrase Benjamin Franklin, we will then all need to hang together, for we will surely all hang separately.

There is one other race I want to opine on before signing off here, because it has gotten relatively scant attention: the Democratic primary for WI-03, a seat that Trump won by just over 7 points in 2024, and that has expanded its support for him every time he’s been on the ballot. Yet be not deceived: this seat is going to be extremely competitive, in no small part because of the oafish incompetence and petty cruelty of its current occupant.

Rebecca Cooke and Emily Berge are running to challenge incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden. Cooke started as an overwhelming favorite, and while I would say that she still is, Emily Berge has run a robust, expansive campaign herself, making an upset not outside the bounds of possibility.

At the heart of Berge’s challenge to the better-funded Cooke is a sense among Berge supporters that national Democrats have overstepped by getting staunchly behind Cooke early on. Among other things, the DCCC – the campaign arm of the House Democrats – endorsed Rebecca Cooke as one of their “red to blue” candidates, ensuring that she would get funding from the party apparatus.

I like both candidates for different reasons, and I would say that framing this election as progressive vs moderate, as is often the tendency these days, would be somewhat misleading. While Berge has talked about her support for policies such as Medicare for All, she’s also constantly emphasized her local roots: she was the Eau Claire City Council president for several years and ran for a gerrymandered state assembly seat back in 2020.

Cooke has her own local roots: she’s a working waitress at a restaurant in Eau Claire, grew up in the area as the daughter of dairy farmers, and ran a business in the city for several years. She has made focusing on the issues facing Wisconsin’s legions of rural communities a centerpiece of her campaign. And very notably, she has spoken about the devastating gutting by Musk’s clownishly named Department of Government Efficiency of USAID – an organization that had many contracts with Wisconsin farmers. Rarely have I seen a Democrat talk about USAID anymore, so this was a distinct mark in Cooke’s favor for me.

Ultimately, I think both candidates would be lightyears better than the current clown in the seat: Derrick Van Orden. A man who covers our district in glory by regularly ending up in the press for screaming at people – whether they are teenagers in the Capitol, or teenagers at the library. What’s with this man and screaming at children? Oh yeah, he was also present at the Capitol grounds on January 6^th, 2021. To use a technical term: this guy sucks ass. Don’t ask him about his vote to cut Medicaid funding and food assistance to give tens of billions of dollars to the rogue gang known as ICE, either, because he’ll lie to you about whether the sycophantically named “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” cuts Medicaid by a trillion dollars (it does, read for yourself from the American Medical Association). Tom Tiffany voted for it too, of course.

 I can’t wait to fire this embarrassment so I can finally stop having to think about him and his clownish antics.

The stakes of the next few months are stark indeed. Fascism is ascendant in America. Whether we can begin to turn back the tide depends in no small part on the outcome of our elections in November. Regardless of who the pro-democracy side chooses as their standard bearers, we will need to unify rapidly to mount an effective resistance to the cruelty of this administration and its many enablers in the Republican Party. While we can all have our preferences on who should win each contest, we should not lose sight of the broader existential fights we are facing. That is a message that I hope we can all agree on.

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