There is no one cool trick to defeating Donald Trump

Hello everyone. I am back after an extended break from writing articles. Had some life things to get a handle on. I am hoping to write at least one article a month, but ideally two.

Now, let's delve right in: by now, unless you're living in a cave - and even then, plenty of caves get Wi-Fi these days, right? - you've no doubt heard tons of chatter about Joe Biden's poor debate performance a few weeks ago and the efforts by some Democrats to get him to drop out as a result. If you look at polling, most Americans think Trump won the debate, and by a solid margin at that. But what does that actually mean for the election? Taking a deep breath and laying my cards on the table: I think the bad debate performance is already blowing over, but the Biden campaign's response at times has caused me concern about their approach to the broader election. But frankly, there is no "one cool trick" to beating a guy like former President Donald Trump.

To say Biden's lackluster debate performance triggered a mass panic in certain circles would almost be an understatement. To even suggest that Joe Biden remain the presidential nominee for the Democratic Party - after he got almost 90% of the vote in the primary elections held this year - will get you looks akin to as if you had just sprouted two additional heads on your shoulders. This is despite the fact that while it's true more Democrats have gotten cold feet about Biden since the debate, many still want him to be the nominee. That includes progressive firebrands such as New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who just recently wrote an op-ed endorsing him.

My first thought regarding the pressure campaign against Biden is this: anyone who is suggesting that Biden drops out must realize that means it's going to be Vice President Kamala Harris who replaces him. She is his VP and is the direct successor to him. She was on a winning ticket in 2020 that got more votes than any other ticket for president and vice president in American history. Over 81 million Americans voted for the Biden-Harris ticket. So, it's not going to be [insert governor or senator here whom 75% of the public hasn't heard of]. That's point one. She also appears to be the top choice of Democrats as a Biden replacement, which makes sense.

I consider this to be the most nonnegotiable aspect of all this - it's still going to be Biden, in all likelihood, and that has been the case ever since he won in November of 2020. I've been following the fallout from Biden's debate debacle closely, and at times have been quite disappointed by his campaign's response to things. I certainly wish he had done a big town hall event or two in a swing state right after the debate and crushed the anxious chatter before it could become a firestorm of panic.

That said, recent events - you know, like former President Donald Trump getting shot at a rally of his - have only further convinced me that it's time for Democrats to accept that Biden is the nominee and end this discussion about tossing him aside. To quote from Bernie Sanders,

Yes. I know: Mr. Biden is old, is prone to gaffes, walks stiffly, and had a disastrous debate with Donald Trump... Enough! Mr. Biden may not be the ideal candidate, but he will be the candidate and should be the candidate. And with an effective campaign that speaks to the needs of working families, he will not only defeat Mr. Trump but beat him badly. It’s time for Democrats to stop the bickering and nit-picking.

So on the very off chance it's not Biden, it's going to be Vice President Kamala Harris. Do what you need to do accept what I just wrote, but there you go. Particularly amusing to me is the suggestion made by people like Jon Stewart, who I tend to think has trenchant takes, that the Democrats choose their nominee at the convention. This is effectively a 21st century endorsement of "smoke-filled rooms" - usurping the will of Democratic voters and opting for a convoluted process that will likely lead to bitterness and division, not uplift and unity. This is not a viable option for many reasons. I'll get back more to that in a bit.

But let's talk about narratives here, since narratives are I think a big reason people are considering this to be a viable option. Narratives can often take on a life of their own in politics. "Biden is old" is something we've been hearing for at least 5 years now, and the blaring of this simple fact has only gotten louder recently. With the debate behind us now, it can feel deafening. So Biden appearing to be a tired old man during a pivotal moment in his campaign is a potent reinforcement of an already deeply-felt narrative.

But the thing is: most people already think President Biden is too old. So I think, based off of all of the data I've seen, the debate should properly be seen as a lost opportunity to undermine that narrative, at least with a small-but-real segment of voters. Biden thus didn't do what he needed to do - though I would observe that later in the debate, his performance improved substantially, and his attacks on Trump for appointing justices who overturned Roe v. Wade and for his own responsibility for the J6 attack struck me as strong. Nonetheless, much of the media and political commentariat had their narrative, and they have since ran with it like an 8 year old running around with a colorful balloon.

This isn't to say there aren't real, valid concerns about Biden's candidacy. Election modeling from the professional election modelers at 538 suggests that the election is effectively a dead heat at this point - both Biden and Trump have a roughly equal chance of winning the electoral college votes necessary to become president as of the afternoon of July 15th, 2024. Polling averages of high quality, reliable pollsters suggest that the pivotal swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia are all fairly close between Trump and Biden. I would classify most of these states as "must-win" for both candidates. And in poll after poll, people express that Biden is too old for a second term, including many self-declared Democrats. The example I linked from today is just one of many where it's a concern of most voters.

So my essential issue with this isn't that people are panicking or worried, so much as they aren't thinking. They can happily suggest the upsides of Biden getting dumped, but I feel there isn't a fully honest accounting happening on their end. This is especially true for those who think that Biden's replacement would be someone like Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan as opposed to Vice President Kamala Harris. Whitmer is well-liked in her state, and has won in her purplish home state by comfortable margins twice. It makes sense people would look to her, except for one tiny, inconvenient fact that I alluded to earlier: how would she become the nominee? During a chaotic, contested convention in which there would assuredly be other supporters of other candidates? And how would it look to choose a white woman from the Midwest over the half Black, half Indian Vice President, who is well-liked by the party base? Wouldn't that seem a little... cavalier? Racist, even?

And since we are fully frolicking through the land of speculation right now, suppose this: what if the convention in Chicago that ultimately nominates a candidate like Whitmer in August is incredibly embittering? What if it's chaotic? What if Democratic delegates there scream in each other's faces about how the supporters of [insert candidate here] don't take beating Trump seriously enough?

Do you think the Republicans would just let it slide? Give their ole pals the Democrats a pass? Or would they pounce to create a narrative of Democratic disunity, weakness, and chaos in contrast to defiant Republican strength in the aftermath of the attempt to kill Trump? And let's not forget the press - they would have a feeding frenzy, ten times more ravenous than the one they've had over Biden recently. Picture the headline, "Democrats In Chaos, Republicans Ascendant As Bitter Convention Drags On." Narrative matters. The Democratic Party appearing disunited and its members strangling each other until they're blue in the face not even 3 months before the election will absolutely not go unnoticed.

I haven't even gotten into the question of ballot access for a non-Biden, non-Harris nominee, because I think it's largely beside the point. This is why the convention idea is an idea thoroughly based in wish-casting and is not at all grounded in political reality. The choices for a nominee for the Democrats at this point are Joe Biden or, in the very unlikely event it's not him, Kamala Harris. That's it.

And while the situation above is hypothetical, I don't think it's particularly far-fetched. Let's have the humility to admit that there's an incredible amount of uncertainty to the idea of tossing a presidential nominee aside, even if it does have some potential upsides.

All of this is to reiterate my point that there is no one cool trick to beating Donald Trump. He retains a broad, loyal base of supporters, especially in critical swing states like Wisconsin. He is still popular in rural America, a section of the country disproportionately represented in the electoral college's most important states.

But for what it's worth, Kamala Harris has grown on me quite a lot in recent months, and she would be an extremely effective debater against Trump in a way Biden has struggled to be as of late. She's comparatively young in her 50s (no small thing in an election where there's been a constant fixation on age), she's forceful, and she's not afraid to put the Republicans on defense. She has the loyalty of many Democratic voters, and has been often given the unenviable task of defending the Biden administration's more unpopular - at least with progressives - policies on issues like immigration and the border. I think she's played her hand well - but it's worth noting that she too would have her issues. According to 538's approval tracker, she's at a net negative 12 approval with the public - pretty much the exact same as Trump's (but better than Biden's net negative 18).

As a final point on "Biden stepping aside" - it's worth observing that much-floated alternatives like Governor Gretchen Whitmer don't poll much better against Trump. There could be a lot of reasons for that, such as lack of name recognition, but it's hardly reassuring to me. More to the point, Whitmer herself has said she's sticking with Biden. Noting from an article in The New York Times, a media outlet that has fixated on the efforts to dump Biden at the expense of other major news, Whitmer calls the efforts to get her to run a "distraction more than anything," and makes it clear she will not run this year even if Biden did step aside.

Now, let's turn to one former President Donald Trump. Because he's the proverbial elephant in the room. Other than the fact he's been found liable of sexually abusing E. Jean Carroll and fined over $80 million for the fact, has 34 convictions on falsifying business documents, and played the central role in inciting an attack on the Capitol on January 6th, 2021... what liabilities does the guy have? I mean, come on - he did beat Hillary. And he also recently got shot, which, if you read the panicked tweets of liberals and socialists alike on Twitter, means it's Joever.

He's also currently embroiled in several criminal investigations and trials related to them, including for trying to illegally throw an election to him in the state of Georgia - remember his attempt to pressure Georgia's Republican Secretary of State by saying to him, "I need you to find me 11,800 votes"? Not to mention the man fell asleep several times during his fraud trial in New York City. Compared to the tsunami of coverage Biden's age has gotten, I find it notable that the media gave Trump's sleepiness a passing mention before quickly moving on.

And if you think I'm being a partisan hack, ask yourself what the media's reaction would have been if Biden had fallen asleep during a press conference or something. The fixation with much of the media about making Biden's age the story of the election is so nakedly obvious to me. Trump is almost the exact same age as Biden at 78, and can barely give coherent answers to basic questions. He recently rambled incoherently about sharks and electric boats at a rally in Nevada. But the thing he is, he sounds energetic when he lies to our faces about his record, policies, and intentions. So there's that, I guess.

I know better than many that optics and perceptions matter a lot more than substance in 21st century American politics. For god's sake, Donald Trump was already the president once. None of this is lost on me. I have zero doubt, for example, that the picture of Donald Trump pumping his fist in defiance after being shot in the ear this past weekend will became one of the most-remembered images of this election.

But as someone who's been involved in politics since before I could legally drink, I can't help but wonder about the double standards here. I've read plenty of earnest takes from people I respect suggesting that the reason there's so many op-eds calling for Biden but not Trump to step aside is that the media class takes it as a given that Trump is horrible and that the GOP won't ever hold their beloved leader accountable, and that they want the Democrats to beat him.

I have to challenge that, especially when we remember their behavior 8 years ago. Objectively speaking, the most-covered story of that election was Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server while she was secretary of state. No other story came close, not even the Trump Access Hollywood tape where he bragged about sexually assaulting women. Was that really the most important story of that election? Our media class certainly thought so. You'll have to forgive me if I'm skeptical of their concern for American democracy. Personally, I think a lot of them want Trump back - he made journalism prestigious again, and created an insatiable appetite for political news that Biden simply hasn't.

Moreover, constant iterations of "Biden is senile" memes and clips for the past few years has made me unbelieving of any claims about his capacity. The GOP has constantly circulated deceptively edited clips or clips devoid of context to make Biden seem like a confused old man. And despite no evidence of cognitive decline on Biden's part, many pundits - including ones I tend to agree with, like Ezra Klein - seem to be gladly running with that irresponsible narrative. I have watched Biden speak many times over the years, including his energetic State of the Union speech back in March. Biden may be old - you've perhaps heard that by now - but he is coherent and capable. His command of policy is far, far superior to his adversary's. If you want to say Biden's age is too much of a risk in such a high stakes election, stand by that argument, but don't make insinuations about how he's secretly got dementia.

I am not here to defend Biden on everything. I think his campaign should have jumped into action far quicker to reassure voters than it did after his bad debate, though they seem to now be a lot more willing to put Biden into unscripted contexts like interviews. As I've noted in a previous piece, I think Biden's generally staunch support for Israel's incredibly cruel, destructive campaign in Gaza has hurt him with America's youngest voters, a group he was already struggling with. And for what it's worth, I did not vote for him in the 2020 primary. I hopped on the Joe wagon only when it became clear he was going to be the man who was going to take on the anti-democratic menace that is Donald Trump.

In a lot of ways, though, he has exceeded my expectations. He passed the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act, which helped me get back on my feet financially during COVID, passed a large $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that includes, among other things, funding for lead pipe removal efforts, and passed the largest climate bill in American history in the form of the Inflation Reduction Act, making it so America is on track to be a leader in the fight against the terror of climate change.

He's appointed solid judges to the federal courts and officials who are staunchly pro-worker to institutions like the National Labor Relations Board, making it easier for workers to unionize. He ended America's 20 year war in Afghanistan. He has made it easier for me to pay back my student loans with his SAVE plan. He has made it so the medical debt I have doesn't count toward my credit score. He has protected my sister's Social Security from Republican efforts to cut it. And even in small, unsexy ways that won't be noticed nationally, he's helped my community - a $10 million overpass for a railroad crossing here in Eau Claire to make it safer was made possible thanks to his law on infrastructure.

Essentially, what I am here to say is that the grass is always greener. Tossing Biden aside carries real risks. And I think we are getting to a point where, by constantly hand-wringing over Biden being 81, we risk helping to make his age the central story in an election where the Republican nominee has promised to use the government against his political rivals, including the Biden family, build mass deportation camps to deport tens of millions of people, and to stack the government with Republican loyalists as part of his Project 2025 plan. That is the essence of dictatorship. That is the essence of fascism.

The Republicans are rallying this week for their convention in my state's largest city - a place, it should be noted, that Trump a month ago called "a horrible city." As Dan Shafer of the Milwaukee-based publication The Recombulation Area notes, Republican hostility to Milwaukee is hardly unique to Trump. What will they do in this city that they have so much open contempt for? What will be uttered at their convention in the immediate aftermath of Trump being shot? I'll go out on a limb here and say that whatever is said, there will be plenty of demonizing of groups such as immigrants and LGBTQ people to go around. And the Republicans will make plain their contempt for American democracy and the voters who power it by their continued embrace of 2020 election lies and conspiracies. No one will make this more evident than former President Donald Trump. That's my prediction.

And so that's the thing about Biden: he's the only viable pro-democracy candidate in the running. That's the reality. 3rd party candidates are a waste of votes, money, and energy - in all likelihood, Joe Biden or Donald Trump will be president come January. Either we re-elect Biden and continue on a path of fighting climate change, fighting for workers, and indeed, fighting for democracy itself in this country, or we go to an extremely dark, frightening place where hostility to climate justice, workers' rights, and democracy itself are the norm. It's democracy or Project 2025. Those are the stakes. At a certain point, everything else is just noise.